Toward Accurate and Valid Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Bikeway Projects

Toward Accurate and Valid Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Bikeway Projects
PI: Juan Matute, UCLA

Abstract: With greenhouse gases increasingly under local, state, and federal regulation, projects that can demonstrate greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions become eligible for funding from various sources. In California, California’s AB 32 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund is used to fund transportation projects, including bikeway projects through the Active Transportation Program. With competition for limited funds, the costeffectiveness of GHG reductions from bikeway projects will become a more important criteria in project evaluation. But decisionmakers currently operate with significant uncertainty due to the lack of empirical knowledge about how transportation projects impact GHG.

This research seeks to explore the determinants of GHG reductions from bicycle projects in order to set an agenda for future data collection and assist the California Department of Transportation in estimating GHG reductions. We augment existing beforeandafter bicycle count data with original intercept survey data. We then seek to estimate the change in GHG and to discern the key factors that determine the magnitude and direction of the change, considering bikeway type, locational context, population and employment variables, and local travel behavior, among other variables. Our final research product will be a methodology to estimate GHG reductions from bikeway projects.

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